The global gold ounce has returned to the range of 4360 dollars with an increase of over 2%. Meanwhile, in the Iranian market, the price of the dollar has reached about 228 thousand tomans, which has prevented a significant increase in domestic gold prices.
Analysis of Gold and Dollar Situation
Currently, the price of 18-carat gold is close to 23 million and 363 thousand tomans. The question arises whether gold can reach 25 million tomans in the remaining days until the end of Shahrivar. The global gold ounce rose by more than 2% after the market's initial negative reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, reaching the range of 4360 dollars.
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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target rate to the range of 3.75 to 4 percent. Following this increase, the drop in oil prices, the weakening of the US dollar, and the decline in Treasury yields helped gold recover some of its previous losses. However, most Federal Reserve policymakers have suggested the possibility of another interest rate hike, which could hinder further gold growth.
Gold Market Conditions in Iran
Now, the range of 4350 to 4360 dollars for the global gold ounce is very important. If the price can stay above 4400 dollars, buying pressure in the global gold market will increase. In the Iranian market, gold is affected by the price of the dollar. If the global ounce increases, but the dollar decreases, part of the global price increase will be neutralized.
For 18-carat gold to rise from about 23.36 million tomans to 25 million tomans, it needs to grow by nearly 7 percent. If the global ounce remains close to 4360 dollars and other market conditions do not change, the dollar must reach around 244 thousand tomans for this goal to be achieved.
If the dollar remains close to 228 thousand tomans, the global ounce must increase to the range of 4660 to 4670 dollars. It is also possible for both the dollar and the global ounce to increase simultaneously. If the ounce exceeds 4400 dollars and the dollar reaches around 242 thousand tomans, 18-carat gold will approach the 25 million toman mark.
Ultimately, reaching gold at 25 million tomans by the end of Shahrivar may be possible, but with current prices, a new catalyst is needed.
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